China's shipbuilding Kingdom Dream - Interview with China Shipbuilding Industry Economic Research Center director Cao Yousheng
Wooden boats in the history of China is at the forefront, and the Ming dynasty, Zheng He's fleet is the world's highest level of offshore fleet, fully demonstrate the level of China's shipbuilding were advanced. But with the rise of the industrial revolution, Western shipbuilding technology to overtake the East, China gradually fell behind in the world shipbuilding industry.
Recently, according to Agence France-Presse quoted the British Clarkson Research's latest statistics released by the global shipbuilding industry, Korean shipyards received orders for ships last year totaled 14.5 million tons correction, accounting for 38% of the total number of global ship orders as much stability ride the world's largest shipbuilding country first. China's shipbuilding industry received orders for ships up to the 2005 amendment to 7 million tons, in order to calculate a single country has overtaken Japan, entry into the world's second largest shipbuilding country. In this regard, Sinorama China Shipbuilding Centre for Economic Research Mr. Cao Yousheng.
"South Wind" (hereinafter referred to as "South"): China's shipbuilding industry made the world's No. 1 shipbuilding power in the voice is when? Situation of the world's shipbuilding industry is like?
Cao Yousheng (hereinafter referred to as TSO): China proposed a "global shipbuilding power" has two stages, in April 2002, when then-premier Zhu Rongji out of China to become the world's No. 1 shipbuilding power; in 2004, Hu Jintao, general secretary made: not only to become the world's largest shipbuilding country, but also to become the world's shipbuilding power.
50 years ago in the 20th century, the world shipbuilding center in Europe, and later with the rise of the Japanese shipbuilding industry and 70 years South Korea's shipbuilding industry began to rise in East Asia as the world shipbuilding center. 50 years, East Asia as a shipbuilding center in the world has been constantly strengthened.
"South": the rise of the Chinese shipbuilding industry and what impact will the industry structure?
Cao: Currently the world's shipbuilding market, East Asia accounted for more than 80% share. The eastward shift of the world shipbuilding center accompanied Kingdom ship replacement: early 19th century, the United States shipbuilding Kingdom; the mid-19th century Britain's turn to dominate in the first shipbuilding powerhouse sat for nearly 100 years; into the 20th century, In 1956, Japan's shipbuilding output reached 1.876 million tons, the ship then became the Kingdom; in 1973 to put into operation Hyundai shipyard in Ulsan, marked the rise of South Korean ship quickly, after nearly 30 years of efforts, finally entering the the 21st century, surpassed Japan to become the world's No. 1 shipbuilding power. Competition in the world shipbuilding industry in general pattern shown on Han Shuangxiong hegemony, China's rapid growth, Europe is gradually declining trend.
Expected to 2015-2020, the Chinese shipbuilding industry share of the international market may be close to or surpass Japan and Korea. The rise of China's shipbuilding industry has two implications, one of the world to further strengthen the shipbuilding center of East Asia, the second is the world's shipbuilding and in east Asia in terms of competitive landscape, will be Japan, Korea and hegemony gradually evolved into Chinese, Japanese, Korean tripod situation.
"South": but only a shipbuilding in China is big country, not shipbuilding power.
Cao: Yes. First of all, according to market share, from 1994 to 2000, although China has been listed by country ranked third in the world, but its share has been hovering between 4% and 7%, while Japan and South Korea's international market share are more than 30 %, from these figures, even though China was ranked third, but not belonging to the first. Until 2001, China's market share hovering just break through this situation. Objectively speaking, the 21st century, China can only call an important shipbuilding countries, with major powers can not be called.
Level of technology, industrial scale and economic efficiency, is to determine the shipbuilding industry's overall competitiveness of the three elements. First, the level of development and design technology and capability, whether developed various types of advanced ship design, shipbuilding determine product competitiveness. Second, the manufacturing level, and shipbuilding efficiency, it decided Shipi to meet the requirements of international competition, rapid, high quality build projects all kinds of ships. Scale of the industry reflects the economies of scale requirements, and determine the market share; the cost reflects the cost control requirements, and industry profitability and quality of economic growth. Three ways to achieve the appropriate level, it indicates the comprehensive competitive.
"South": we know, the shipbuilding industry in China reworked the only contest with the world advanced level in the industry, you think why?
Cao: first, because the industrialization of China's shipbuilding industry developed from the beginning, we follow the shipping industry to compete globally integrated market-oriented industry, we must take the aim of opening up international market development strategy.
In 1978, Comrade Deng Xiaoping made China's shipbuilding industry to enter the international market, determine the export-oriented development strategy.
Shipbuilding industry start using international standards, norms and quality requirements to build the ship in international competition; second is to adopt the technology introduction - digestion, absorption - another new technology development path and quickly transformed into a certain level of skill and strength; third play better advantage of our low-cost.
"South": "Japan model" and the "Korea model" has become a model for the world shipbuilding industry, but some recent media that "China model", I do not know your understanding, the three models of the specific connotation? How China's shipbuilding industry out of "low cost + low-efficiency" model?
Cao: I am not in favor of "model" that. I think that Japan, South Korea's rise and development of shipbuilding industry, follow a common rule is that the international industrial division of labor and transfer laws. As a globally integrated market-oriented industries under the resource endowment is an important factor in determining international competitiveness. In addition, the evolution of the international shipbuilding competition pattern also follows the industry life cycle theory, at different stages of industrial development, but also determines the different pace of development and potential.
Of course, every country in the development of the shipbuilding industry has its own characteristics. Japan's fundamental advantage lies in technological advantage: the world's leading shipbuilding efficiency and development capabilities; South Korea's overall technological level close to Japan, but its high concentration of shipbuilding, or "economies of scale" is far better than in Japan. Korea Heavy Industries Group, a modern shipbuilding output on the output over the whole of China.
Relative to Japan, Korea, China shipbuilding industry development has the advantage, "overall competitive advantage", that is, ship design and development of a strong shipbuilding capacity and high efficiency, plus more obvious cost advantage, while striving to improve economies of scale. And because the level of design and efficiency still have a lot of space, determine the international competitiveness of China there is great potential for upgrading.
Over the past 5 years, China's breakthrough in the "low efficiency + cost" situation has been made clear progress. China State Shipbuilding Corporation China Shipbuilding Group, a unit of Hudong now undertake to five LNG ship orders, each costing up to nearly 200 million U.S. dollars cost. China successfully entered the shipbuilding industry in this cutting-edge field of LNG shipping and marketing, reflecting China's recent 5-year rate of technological development of ships, also marks the adjustment of product structure of China shipbuilding industry stepping into a new stage.
The development of China's shipbuilding industry ideal "model" is a large modern shipbuilding facilities should be based on science and technology innovation as the main driving force, constantly comparative advantage into competitive edge approach to development.
"South": China's largest shipyard shipbuilding Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., Ltd. has started, some people believe that China just around the corner towards shipbuilding power, was also suggested that China's shipbuilding industry has just entered the growth stage, her long way to go. Your view?
Cao: Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Co., shipbuilding output in 2005 more than 200 million dwt, and has become the largest modern shipyard, which is an indirect manifestation of China's shipbuilding industry is growing rapidly. Bohai Bay, Yangtze Delta, Pearl River shipbuilding bases for the three countries as a national strategy, will lay the groundwork for further development of China's shipbuilding industrial base, also determine the future of China's shipbuilding industry layout.
However, it should clearly see that on the one hand, China's shipbuilding industry with Japan and South Korea compared to both in the design and development capabilities on both Hai You Hai Shi shipbuilding Xiaoshuai obvious difference, on the other hand, China Marine Equipment industry is far behind Japan, Korea and even Europe.
Therefore, China should become a ship big and strong, there is still a long way to go. Market share only from the point of view, in the 2015 to 2020, China may be close to Japan, South Korea. Korea from the world's second largest shipbuilding country become the world's No. 1 shipbuilding power, spent 20 years in China from 1994 to the development of the world's third second or first world, estimated to take at least 20 years of the same.
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